Bank of America strategist outlines conditions for stock rebound

Investors should maintain a risk-off posture despite recent declines in equity markets, according to Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America. In a report published Nov. 6, 2026, Hartnett identified three specific benchmarks that must be met before market conditions warrant an increase in stock exposure.

The strategist stated that investors should monitor central bank policy for a cessation of monetary tightening. Additionally, he noted that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield must drop below 4.5% and the price of oil must fall below $80 per barrel to create a more favorable environment for equities.

The guidance follows a week of market volatility in which the S&P 500 declined 3% and tech stocks fell 6%. Hartnett, who has maintained a cautious outlook for several months, attributed the poor returns in the second half of 2026 to an overly bullish consensus among investors during the summer months.

Regarding the potential for a market recovery, Hartnett suggested that if these three conditions are satisfied, a year-end rally could begin following the Thanksgiving holiday. He emphasized the importance of the Treasury yield threshold, stating that a rate under 4.5% is a prerequisite before investors should consider loading up on stocks.