U.S. wildfire damage projected to triple by mid-century
Wildfire damage to U.S. structures could triple by 2060, but proactive measures offer affordable risk reduction.
A fast-moving fire burned hundreds of homes in Spokane, Wash., in August 2026. Mario Tama/Getty Images (Photo via The Conversation)
New research indicates that the number of homes and structures damaged or destroyed by wildfires across the United States is on pace to triple by mid-century. A study published on Nov. 3, 2026, by The Conversation highlights that without significant climate action, the risk to buildings could nearly triple by 2060, potentially impacting up to 449,100 structures.
Virginia Iglesias, Earth Lab Director at the University of Colorado Boulder and author of the article, noted that rising temperatures and expanding development are primary drivers of this trend. Iglesias stated that as these factors converge, the frequency of active fire seasons is becoming the norm rather than the exception.
The 2026 fire season was characterized as destructive, exacerbated by dry land conditions and a lack of snow. These environmental factors contributed to the severity of recent events, underscoring the urgency for communities to adapt to changing conditions.
Despite the projected increase in risk, the report emphasizes that there are affordable methods available for communities to mitigate the threat. The research suggests that proactive preparation is essential to reducing the potential damage to residential and commercial infrastructure in the coming decades.