Texas governor race tightens in prediction markets
Prediction markets show Democratic challenger gaining ground, but incumbent Greg Abbott still holds an edge in the Texas governor's race.
(Photo via CNBC)
As voters head to the polls on Nov. 3, 2026, prediction markets indicate a narrowing gap in the Texas gubernatorial race between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
Data from Kalshi shows Governor Abbott with a 60% chance of winning a fourth term, while Representative Hinojosa holds a 40% chance. This represents a significant shift for the challenger, whose odds stood at 8% in mid-July.
Similar trends are reflected on Polymarket, where the incumbent's probability of victory is approximately 61%, compared to 40% for Hinojosa. Her position has improved from a low of 5% in late July.
The campaign has been marked by debates over the state's power grid and the regulation of artificial intelligence data centers. While Governor Abbott previously supported a $40 billion investment in the sector, he halted new permits in September 2026 following an audit, a move that Hinojosa has criticized during her campaign.
Election officials reported that more than 7.7 million Texans participated in early voting, which concluded on Oct. 30. Prediction markets, which differ in methodology from traditional political polling, will resolve their contracts based on the official results released by the Texas Secretary of State.