Historical data shows stocks often rise after midterm elections

As voters cast ballots on Nov. 3, 2026, for the midterm elections, financial analysts are looking toward historical market trends to gauge the potential impact on the S&P 500. Data from the firm Edward Jones shows that the index has risen an average of 1.7% in the month following the last 14 midterm elections dating back to 1970.

Longer-term performance metrics also suggest positive trends. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a 13.7% increase in the year following midterm cycles. Additionally, market data indicates that S&P 500 returns have averaged 15.5% in the six months immediately following these elections.

Market strategists suggest that the resolution of political uncertainty often shifts investor focus back to the economic outlook. Magdalena Ocampo, a market strategist at Principal Asset Management, noted that while volatility around the vote is possible, markets have historically performed well as that uncertainty recedes.

Some analysts point to the potential for divided government as a factor that can influence market stability. Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, stated that less political change can create a more predictable environment for companies to invest in long-term projects, which often benefits earnings.

The 2026 midterm elections involve all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 seats in the U.S. Senate, affecting the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term. Following the results, Congress is expected to address government funding and policy matters including trade, regulation, tax, and spending.